audusd basing?, page-57

Yes Hangseng, I've created a contradiction. My stupidity this week was in shorting others too early. There is no further science on how much it leads by, it might be longer than a week.

Copper leads (it is not coincident) and has rolled over. I was wrong to short others at the same time because this is not how it works. So I am looking for shorts based only on my thinking of fx correlations.

QE2 is a rumour - until it is written into law I will treat things as they are - very [moderated] ordinary. When the US injects themselves with QE2.0 at some point (because they have to), it will cut shorts off and things affected will go bullish - just like it did in Mar2009, and equities and commodities will bounce. Including copper since QE2 is obviously inflationary.

The objective of ANY global stimulus is to prevent prices from falling leading to deflation. Deflation will be more destructive to the financial system as it uses fractional reserve accounting and gearing to infinity - it is how all the carp started.

The dead cat has bounced once already - it will keep doing it whileever they prop it up without any natural economic health from the private sector and consumer. This isn't blowing hot air, it's a fact of life. Governments do not grow economies.

Until then, I look to Copper, VIX, USDi and Yen pairs for signs of long term changes as I plan to trade for several weeks (not hours) when it does - up or down.

If copper finds a bottom somewhere beforehand, likewise I will respect it. If VIX fails 24.5 and continues lower (SPX up), it will do so for a reason that is not currently there.

A conundrum more than a contradiction as I have my leads. It matters what happens next, and without QE2 the VIX is an indicator to respect. I messed up by not giving my longs more time.

Ignorign any news. USDi and EU are choppy, and other indicators are telling us something.

Anyone trading for tops or bottoms will see it on the hourly or slightly longer (2H or 4H). By the time you see it on the daily it has passed.

It's still work in progress, and have learned a few things this week myself despite this. For a start, stop being freaking impatient!