Nice work gj - I like it. It took a while, but the USD is playing out so far today. Good AU gap close for those who were on it and waited for it.
In short any pattern works until it doesn't. In saying that every pattern gives you 2 choices at limit points within the pattern - will it hold or will it break. These allow you to reduce the trade risk without simply having a random punt.
I don't care if a trend is up or down. I used to, but now I don't. Very long time frames tell the story much more clearly of where it has been, but also where it 'can' go.
Like my patterns, and those of others, your symetrical triangle is arbitrary, but looks to be holding. Certain patterns I find are more powerful (and reliable) than others - for example, ascending triangles are more powerful than this, with a clear horizontal break line. Rising wedges are another. Patterns tell the history of what the traders were trying to do at a certain price level, at a point in time.
H&S wherever they happen are very important to me - either rightside up or upside down. There is a calculation that is a very reliable target when H&S break at the necklines. 8/10 times the projected target is reached. This is the power behind what the H&S was trying to tell you - i.e. the traders battling it out. But H&S can be separated by some time/distance - their targets can remain relevant.
CRB index (commodities) is in a very powerful rising wedge. If it fails (shorting copper and gold) then the AUD is knackered for a short while.
The centre green line of your pitchfork looks like a reasonable target to me.
Raff channels to me are fundamental for trending - as a price oscilated within 2 channels continuously - an up channel, and a down channel. patterns arise when there is indecision in large traders. Indecision being a polite description for what they do.
UC approaching a down channel resistance (up)AU approaching up channel support (down). Copper rolling over nicely, my gold target for tonight is 1390.
If the AU sets a new lower low (1.01 say), and a new lower high (1.06 say) then the patterns are breaking down. Otherwise, then trend remains up.
I'm short AU from 1.81 until it gets broken. Commodity prices look like taking a hit.
