luvs,I tend to agree that GGP has not factored in any value to...

luvs,

I tend to agree that GGP has not factored in any value to silverwood - I would put this down to the recent CR's spp etc.

Based on this and given that AUJ have some success in Silverwood built into their price it is no doubt a worthwhile exercise to see where money would be best sitting for this prospect alone.

Please take the figures below with a pinch of salt as there is much guesswork and assumptions involved. However I still find it interesting.

For the sake of illustration I am assuming the first well is successful with 200 bopd (as stated as a base case in announcements). I am ignoring gas to keep the comparison simple

AUJ (40% interest)
Net bopod: 80
Profit per bopod: 60 AUD
Annual profit: $1,750,000
EPS (based on 50,000000 shares): 0.03504
p/e (10) : 35c per share

This scenario would forecast an AUJ share price of around 60c on a successful well (25c cash backing plus 35c). Which is around 50% from current levels

GGP (30% interest)
Net bopod: 60
Profit per bopod: 60 (deductions for xyz)
Annual profit: $1,314,000
EPS (based on 845,031,824 shares): 0.0015
p/e (10) : 1.5c per share

This scenario would forecast a GGP share price of around 5c on a successful well (3.5 + 1.5). Which is around 43% from current levels.

So given my simplistic example AUJ would give better upside from success at silverwood. However failure would see it go back to cash backing or below. GGP should have a similar percentage gain but also have Fausse point, Bowtie, Bullseye to occur in the same timeframe. So failure should not impact the shareprice too much and success could be magnified with other drills / results.

I suppose that is why my money is currently in ggpo.