Continuing my ongoing love affair with Wyckoff thanks to Senator I have come up with a possible scenario / theory regarding accumulation as against plain selling.
Using the OBV indicator (& boxes of course) to measure buying versus selling since the 1 April 2015 which is the start of the OBV Indicator starting trending up & I assume is when accumulation began again in earnest after the previous accumulation & then selloff.
There are 12 boxes outlined which I have designated as buying or selling based on the trend of the OBV indicator.
The OBV adds volume on up days & subtracts volume on down days. I also assigned the volume in each box as buying below the centre & selling above the centre.
According to the last annual report there are 506,190,788 listed shares with the top 20 shareholders controlling 61% or 308,236,874 shares.
This leaves 197,953,914 available for trade.
The pretty picture attached is pretty self explanatory & shows the box periods, volumes, amount of available shares which were traded & accumulated etc.
In the longer time frame (The 12 boxes) calculations starting from1 April 2015 there was total of 264,976,519 traded. (This is 134% of the available shares).
It is interesting to note that the sp was in a serious down trend for 5 months during the time that the OBV indicator was rising.
I assigned 126,039,724 as selling & 138,936,795 as buying.
My calculations show that an amount of 59,965,914 were accumulated from 1 April to the present time at an average price of $0.181
The shorter time frame figures shows that there were 147,159,245 traded. I have assigned 55,661,204 as selling and 91,498,041 as buying and 51,024,241 accumulated at an average price of $0.223.
The percentages shown in the last column are the % of the available shares ( those not held by the top 20)which were traded in each box and a total % of the available shares for the period studied.
OK so what does it all mean?
Well it might mean bugger all & my theory / scenarion is wrong / meaningless or it might mean that someone has accumulated 50 or so million shares.
Depending how I look at it someone has accumulated 59 million shares at an average price of $0.181 over the last 8 months, OR they have accumulated 51 million shares at an average price of $0.223 over the last 3 months.
If the former is right then I don’t think we will see the sp go much lower. If the latter is correct then the sp must be hurting someone at the moment & one would think it is due for a solid rebound.
What I can’t dispute is what the OBV indicator is showing & that is that accumulation has been happening on a large scale for a long time.
Then again I might have just wasted my weekend working all this out.
I wish I had never heard of Wyckoff.
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
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1 | 60000 | 0.012 |
1 | 220000 | 0.011 |
2 | 400000 | 0.010 |
1 | 764356 | 0.009 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.014 | 107141 | 1 |
0.015 | 200000 | 1 |
0.016 | 97844 | 2 |
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