Macquarie ASX Copper Producers Coverage
Good morning folks,
To add to the Macquarie note above.
I've been reading everyone's comments and can see the value in each and why you each have that opinion. So I'd like to give you my thoughts.
Having been a shareholder since the YTC days and bought some shares at the all time lows and highs, (ouch) supported a few capital raises (except for the one to buy Dargues), and some months ago again added to my holdings. Why? Management and the plans and actions they have been demonstrating.
They continue to show they not only have a laser like focus on what needs to happen but have finally added clarity for shareholders about the future direction of the company. They do what they say.
I agree we still do have legacy issues from previous management particularly for retail shareholders. But I don't necessarily think that is the case with the instos. It's really all about the numbers for them. You only have to listen to the conference calls. The questions the analysts ask are all about production numbers, future production, CAPEX, etc. Additionally instos have been 'playing' with the shares price for some years now, particularly when you see a couple of names come on board at times loaning the stock to others.
But as we all know, we are also at the mercy of the underlying commodity prices. My mistake was not to take advantage of the trading opportunities instead focusing on long-term accumulation.
The latest presentation from Diggers & Dealers you hear Bryan talk about the number one goal is to fill the Peak mills. Open up more production areas, successfully commission Federation and then possibly move onto Great Cobar with a FID later this year. Personally I'm really looking forward to Great Cobar. We should also have another conference call in the next 2 weeks.
The Cobar hub and spoke model makes perfect sense with at least 60 possible exploration areas to choose from. Bryan has mentioned make the exploration success work. Very pleased to see the grades coming out of Nymagee too.
I don't think there will be any major shift in the share price until commodity prices improve (lucky we have some hedging) and Federation is really humming. Then the underlying numbers will change. Until then we are considered a small miner and while it would be lovely to be up over the 50c again, I don't see that happening for a while just yet. We are at the moment a boring polymetallic miner. Lots of catalysts can change that and this management team are the ones that can make that happen.
Then there is the one catalyst I haven't mentioned, M&A. Metals Acquisition Ltd, (MAC - it's all in the name) purchase of the CSA mine from Glencore signalled possible consolidation in the Cobar region. In the next few years I think the Cobar region that has largely been forgotten and underestimated by many will become a focus of attention for base metal production. If the copper and zinc story holds we will be a prime candidate for an acquisition by another player wanting to get into the Cobar region or consolidate their holdings in it.
Anyway, thank you for reading my rambling thoughts. For the first time in years, I have real confidence AMI will finally become the company we have all hoped it will and deliver real value to shareholders.
All the best.
KKR
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