Hi Panta003, PostPost #: 78735429 on the 17/04/25. I can see...

Hi Panta003,

PostPost #: 78735429 on the 17/04/25.

I can see that Macquarie made an updated comment on the 24 April:

Macquarie assesses Aurelia Metals' 3Q25 report as mixed with gold production 38% higher than consensus but base metals' production missing consensus by up to -37%. The latter was impacted by deferral of high-grade Pb-Zn stopes to 4Q and labor shortages.

The broker was more interested in the strong drilling results from a new prospect at Federation West and believes a higher exploration budget for FY25 is likely given the success.

FY25 EPS forecast lifted by 7% after factoring in the 3Q result, and FY26 EPS raised by 8% on an increase in gold grade forecast.

Outperform. Target rises to 32c from 31c.


Ord Minnett also updated on the 24th:

Ord Minnett describes Aurelia Metals' 3Q25 result as strong, with the highlight being strong operating cash flow of $44.6m from Peak Mine beating its estimate of $15m on account of higher gold production.

The broker believes the company is on track to meet FY25 guidance. At spot gold prices, the analyst sees prospects for strong cash flows in FY26-27 despite capex investments.

FY25 earnings estimate lifted by 35% after factoring in the 3Q result. Valuation lifted after incorporating the Feasibility Study assumptions for the recently approved Great Cobar Project.

Buy. Target rises to 41c from 38c.

I also found this article from a fund manager that mentions Aurelia:

The unknown Spanish investment vehicle that is the most profitable in 2025
6 May 2025

Democratic Capital Sicav, an open-end investment company managed by Gesiuris, has started the year off on the right foot and is, for the moment, the most profitable Spanish investment product in our country. No wonder, since, despite being an almost complete unknown, it stands out slightly above 34% and has attracted the interest of dozens of investors.

Despite its name, it is a global and flexible investment vehicle that does not follow a 'differential' typology with respect to others, although it has succeeded in its commitment to mining companies. Thus, its investment model is based on three pillars: analysis of the macroeconomic situation, selection of undervalued companies and tactical and active short-term management, taking advantage of the opportunities offered by market volatility.

The objective of Democratic Capital Sicav, which has around 150 participants and assets of more than 2.5 million euros, is to provide management aimed at capital preservation and long-term growth, through de-correlated management, capable of generating positive returns in any market scenario.

But what has been the differentiating factor that has enabled it to outperform its rivals by dozens of points? Gold and silver. In their latest letter to their unitholders, sent at the end of last year, the managers of Democratic Capital Sicav pointed out that "the team's vision of investing in mining assets remains intact. The companies that make up the portfolio made a lot of money last year and this year, with a substantially higher gold price, they will increase their margins and therefore their profits. While it is true that this situation has not yet been reflected in the price of these shares, we are fully convinced that over the next few months we will see strong revaluations of these shares. We also think that the bearish side will sooner or later give us back some of the losses, as valuations are very demanding and there should be a correction".

And so, finally, there was. Gold, a safe-haven asset par excellence, acted as such in the wake of Donald Trump's 'Liberation Day' and became the most bullish commodity in 2025 after coffee, as it rallied more than 25%, set record highs, and is trading above $3,300 per ingot. A rally in which mining companies linked to the precious metal, such as Aurelia Metals (6.96% of assets at the end of 2024), Endeavour Silver (5.74%), SRR Mining (5.29%) and Silvercrest (4.76%), among others, benefited.

Democratic Capital Sicav's differences with respect to other Spanish vehicles are notable.

A success that lies especially with Hugo Casanovas Huelgas. The global macro strategist, who was a private banker at Banco Santander, Andbank and Citi, has chaired this financial vehicle since 2014 and has been a large asset manager for Gesiuris Asset Management since January 2022. Moreover, the sicav is close to returning to positive territory since the firm has been managing this vehicle, as it is already down less than 10% after hitting record lows at the end of February 2024.

Democratic Capital Sicav, an open-end investment company managed by Gesiuris, has started the year on a very good footing and is currently the most profitable Spanish investment product in our country. No wonder, since, despite being an almost complete unknown, it stands out slightly above 34% and has attracted the interest of dozens of investors

That's about it.

All the best.

KKR