auricmining ASX AWJ, page-4

Morning all.
@Timothym7
I agree with your numbers on Jeffreys and have very similar.
I would like to add my 2 pennies to the expectations of Munda.

We have just shy of 200,000oz but when we apply a waste factor we end up with 140,000oz.
Assuming that number, we can then look at the sensitivity of the GP in the now confirmed first stage of this Break Out.
I expect to see a gold price of $2,600 US in the very near future or $4,000aud.
We can work on an aisc of $2,000 and I will call that conservative, so that number could prove low.
That gives us a margin of $1,300 at todays GP
The sum looks like this-

140,000 x $1,300 = $182,000,000 then divide that by the expected LOM life of mine, say 3 years and you have $60,666,666
Applying sensitivity means that for every rise of $100 in the GP we see $14,000,000 added to the bottom line.
IF we consider that the GP actually does see my expectation of $2,600 US, that would give us an AUD equivalent of $4,000 and a margin of $2,000

IF that were to materialise we then get this set of numbers in Munda.
140,000oz x $2000 (margin) = $280,000,000 divided by 3 years = 93,333,333/year
At a pe of just 1 we have a current multiple to the mc of 4.7x
We DO NOT need to raise so this will not be diluted.
You could just multiply the SP x 4.7 to get an idea of the effect of a pe of 1 effect.
That equates to 70c which I would consider very very conservative based on the following.
Munda is what we have so far.
We can now spend money that we are earning to further exploration. No CR's No dilution.
Take another look around our neighbourhood and tell me that there is no more gold to be found?
Great area and I would be looking at this little mc if it were just an explorer without the earning capacity that we have.

My previous posts outline the potential of the exploration with success over the fence East, West , North and South.
The number that @PubLunchMan of 82c now looks potentially under valued.

Any good news from here and I will have to recalculate my numbers.
What news could do that?
Better grade control at Munda.
Less expensive contracting.
Greater recoveries at the mill and hence less toll costs.
Or what about more discoveries?
They are already looking 1km to the west in this very fertile country.
Sounds optimistic?

Well I am here for the numbers already expected by what we have right now.
The upside as I suggest will be just a bonus if it were to come about.

If the exploration is successful and we do get a decent mine life extension, What pe multiple would one apply?
If we do see US $2,000 = $4,000 AUD and a $93,333,333/year result
Then just multiply that by the pe factor that you see.
@WiffaSniffa mentioned a factor of 5
5 x $93,333,333 = $466,666,665 mc

I will settle for less of course but not if they find more gold or what about Li?
All funded by earnings.
Changed my sentiment to Buy.
No wonder those oppies are under written.

Kind regards, Wack.