Rain in the Goldfields near Norseman surely must have hampered BML,s efforts to get cracking on Jeffreys Find gold mine Stage Two. However, in my reckoning it is at worst a delay of a couple of weeks and unlikely to impact the project materially. According to Auric's ASX release the plan for BML is to get a batch of gold ore to the mill in April for the first campaign of the year. If last year is any hint then you could expect tit to be about 35,000 tonnes which would yield around 2,000 ounces.
The $6m or so generated will give BML early cash to cover their start up costs at JF. Then it's a job of removing overburden before attacking the main source of gold. We know it is shallow open pit, so no problems envisaged, but it will contribute to a lag of six months or so before cash dribbles into Auric at the end of 2024- prior to the floodgates opening as the project spews out the real money. One thing I've learned about the mining game is that you plan for the worst and hope it comes up smelling of roses. On that basis it would be a fair bet BML will mine more than 350,000 tonnes in 2024, exactly double of 2023. Furthermore, the last campaign of 2023 went a very tidy 1.934 g/t. No reason it couldn't do similar again this year even with a greatly enlarged pit shell. The math takes it to well over 21,000 ounces. All being fair and reasonable at $3300 per ounce for revenues with AISC of around $2000 per ounce. The magical number is therefore $27m, meaning $13.5m to Auric- not so far away from Wiffa Sniffa's crystal ball gazing. Those numbers alone ought to see Auric's share price being re-rated over the coming months, with 25 cents being a conservative guess by mid year.
Now, add in the upside at Munda. Maybe $100m in profits over a few years of mining. You'd have to think that this time next year Auric could well
have $20million in the bank even taking into account start up costs at Munda via the proposed starter pit. A cash backed 30c share before any of the upside is factored in. A bigger outfit like Ramelius or Karora might well grab 200,000 ounces on offer from Munda via a takeover of Auric. If not, and to be frank who cares, then, Auric will be happy to run by itself on the project. In all likelihood the management at Auric could see itself in a position by the end of 2025 with a large amount of cash on hand. How much? Up to $50 million is my guess. Now, with a war chest of that magnitude Auric is supremely positioned to strike all sorts of deals and explore for gold at the same time at many highly prospective pieces of dirt it has its hands on. Ultimately $50M in revenues coming then the logical question is how much are the shares worth ? You'd have to think 50cents which is good reason to be holding onto them and to be actively buying the stock if you have that extra dollar of cash kicking around.
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