IMO China is slowly but surely testing us out on the principle that "its a sovereign right to bolster its own National Security even if that means threatening the National security of a powerful neighbour.
This is the principle on which we have supported the Ukraine.
We now have China on our doorstep in East Timor offering to assist the country economically and beef-up its internal security by police training and equipment with more likely to come.
What's likely next: (a) Will China build a Port in East Timor for trade/fishing . but capable of hosting Chinese Warships & Subs. .. ie: induct East Timor into the SCO# (China's poverty pack version of NATO? IMO, yes.
(b) Will China assist in East Timor's development via the AIIB . (Asia's cheap copy of the IMF/World Bank without the political strings attached?)
IMO yes........all in exchange for access to East Timor's resources?
(c) Will this threaten Aus National Security? IMO yes ; because it will give China an armed forces regional base (like Djibouti in The Gulf) close to Aus
So China's argument will be similar to our argument in defence of the Ukraine's aspirations of joining NATO/EC...IE:
East Timor has a democratic right to bolster its National Security via Armed Forces and Economic Development by joining the BRI-SCO-AIIB in the same way as the Ukraine has a Sovereign Right to join NATO/EC for similar reasons/
How would we be then given that we have security drama when a Chinese Naval Ship merely transited the Torres Straits in International waters?
PS: Its interesting that East Timor recognises China's sovereign right to Taiwan & that the Uyghurs are been fairly treated (See posted link above) which seem to be China's prerequisite to offering aid to East Timor. IE: You are either with us or against us which is also the US mantra.
