Dopey, "Every analyst and his dog is bearish on China"and"Korea...

  1. 10,404 Posts.
    Dopey,

    "Every analyst and his dog is bearish on China"

    and

    "Korea is the best proxy for Chinese economic data"

    I vividly remember Russia in the 1970s. There were no city or street maps such was the xenophobic, centralist views of the regime at the time.

    Open, accurate and honest revelations of a country's economic performance happen when there is nothing to fear.

    What has China got to fear if it revealed what we already know?

    We are now a global economy and if China wants to become fully involved then it must become open, accurate and honest. Since it isn't then I can only assume that it is deliberately keeping information that would reveal the real state of it's economy.

    For me I worry about the internal debt problems. That $600 billion stimulus in 2008 which equates to a $1.2 trillion stimulus in the US, has come and gone leaving in it's wake useless public infrastructure and a cooling off of a once red hot property market.

    The debt hang over must be something. That I can understand. That China is embarrassed at the size of it's uncontrollable debt problem.

    They won't be able to hide that much longer. At a time of economic slowdown the bag of debt is like a drag of 20% of it's exports disappearing.

    Concealment generally means the problem is much bigger that our, my, guesstimate, much larger.



 
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