Think it'll "pop" because of demand. But I don't feel that the financials justify the price. I try not to gamble so despite the expectation of an IPO pop I won't be participating.
Marketing expense per user is rising (see p84, forecast 35% increase per user), and churn is also rising year on year. And we're heading into a stabilising NBN market (vs the last few years where as each new area came online many "rusted on" customers of Telstra, Optus etc were prompted to choose a RSP for the first time in 10-15 years).
Really like Phil and the team but financially it's not a compelling investment right now. Business revenue is growing well and I think that's a bright spot in the business. The fibre rollout also seems to hint at something more than "just" fibre. When that becomes clearer I'll take another look.
The Feb results will be particularly interesting, to see the impact of the Sep & Nov price increases.
