'If they make only 3.6Mil in FY2014, they'll have to net at very least 100Mil in FY2015 + 150Mil in FY2016 to squeeze through without a CR, on condition that the SP can comfortably stay above $1.15 by mid 2016. Might be a tight call.'
Yes, this is the risk re the loans that I tried to raise several times. If the SP remains under $1.15 then the Mt Kellet bonds become payable, and that's another $200m. By 2016 there would be $400m payable. IMO it is unlikely that LYC will generate sufficient profits to pay these loans, unless REE prices start to head north.
With 22kt and a COP at $15 the net profit for 2015 + 2016 would not cover the $400m. Having said which the SP could easily be above the Mt Kellet strike price for the conversion so this $200m probably disappears, and becomes equity.
COP may be critical in the next year.
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$6.92 |
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---|---|---|
2 | 5820 | $6.92 |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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$6.93 | 15020 | 3 |
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1 | 430 | 6.820 |
4 | 2400 | 6.800 |
1 | 30 | 6.760 |
2 | 3400 | 6.750 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.950 | 1000 | 1 |
6.970 | 599 | 1 |
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7.010 | 2200 | 1 |
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