'If they make only 3.6Mil in FY2014, they'll have to net at very...

'If they make only 3.6Mil in FY2014, they'll have to net at very least 100Mil in FY2015 + 150Mil in FY2016 to squeeze through without a CR, on condition that the SP can comfortably stay above $1.15 by mid 2016. Might be a tight call.'

Yes, this is the risk re the loans that I tried to raise several times. If the SP remains under $1.15 then the Mt Kellet bonds become payable, and that's another $200m. By 2016 there would be $400m payable. IMO it is unlikely that LYC will generate sufficient profits to pay these loans, unless REE prices start to head north.

With 22kt and a COP at $15 the net profit for 2015 + 2016 would not cover the $400m. Having said which the SP could easily be above the Mt Kellet strike price for the conversion so this $200m probably disappears, and becomes equity.

COP may be critical in the next year.