once Lynas has released a "Rare Earth Conference "which include...

once Lynas has released a "Rare Earth Conference "

which include of the forecast for "2014 SUPPLY VS DEMAND",
about Cerium is: (Capacity with Lynas's p-1 & 2 and Moly)

Demand:52,800t
Supply: 66,300t
Excess: + 13,500t

but note --- the surplus will be "mainly inside China".

Baotou, Lynas and Moly are all as the key Producers of Cerium, but the Cerium's market outside of China would very likely to be controlled(Contract monopoly by Lynas and Moly in the future.

According to China's data:
from January to March in 2013, China's export Cerium's products (type of HS CODE: 28461090) 36 T, and import 10 T, net export Cerium's products are just only 26 T.

and once Lynas was released "Rhodia Customer Agreement - Supply Contrac":(the Estimated value was approximately $ 200 M)
Long term 10 year contract, Phase I,
Mainly as Cerium,
and Europium, Terbium & Lanthanum.

-----

therefore, before of Lynas announce more related data, hopefully some people don't deliberately exaggerated the fear of "Cerium surplus".