Mole, I agree with much of what you say: but...there's always a but...
Happy with your assumptions of; > Corporate Admin = US$1.00 > Sales = US$0.25 > Royalties = US$1.40
But..... > Shipping: (I have no idea how shipping is costed...nor does anyone else here)..for all we know, Ansteel being the recipient of ALL ore produced by Karara may well be paying for the shipping as per a private contract. Not sure what Atlas's shipping costs has to do with Karara. But for the purposes of this exercise, let's stick with your estimate = US$5.20. > Interest and finance costs: Where has the amount of US$1.9billion @ 5% come from? Is that the total debt amount or GBG's component only (i.e. 47.84% interest in Karara)...because that's what matters.
Secondly, why have you separated interest and financing costs (your estimate of US$12.00 p/WMT) and Repayments (your estimate of US$16.00 p/WMT). Aren't they one and the same? I've checked back to the announcement of 24/5/2015 and refinancing debt referred to in that announcement refers to an amount of 1.481B. Maybe i don't have the full picture.
PS: I couldn't care less about depreciation and amortisation. It's an accounting issue, not an 'ongoing concern' cash item.
Anyhow, it's a good conversation to have - and hopefully the Q report due next week will shed some more light and perhaps there was some further cost cutting per WMT produced.
GBG Price at posting:
2.8¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
