Wheat crop could slip as low as 13 million tonnes - Australia - Thursday, 7 September 2006: Australia's big dry could push Australian wheat production as low as 13 million tonnes if conditions continue to deteriorate. That's the revised forecast of leading independent commodity manager, Emerald Group Australia. Releasing its September crop forecast, the company says Australian wheat production would be approximately 16 million tonnes - 35pc or 8.5 million tonnes lower than that of the previous season. Conditions nationwide have really sapped crop potential," Emerald's executive director, Mike Chaseling, said. "It would take nothing short of a miraculous turnaround through spring to improve the current forecast. "Barley production will be down as much as 40pc. "Our current estimate is for a 6 million tonne barley." Revised forecasts such as this have led to the biggest grain price spike in 20 years. Commenting on the potential impact of the forecast, Mr Chaseling noted that the surge in Australian grain markets already reflected prices well in excess of export parity. He says domestic feed barley prices have jumped by $60 a tonne in the last month. "When you combine the strong domestic situation along with the real potential for rallying markets offshore - international wheat prices are up $20 US dollars per tonne in the last month - then we have bullish picture developing, no doubt" Mr Chaseling said. END
