Australian Wheat Crop May Fall on Dry Weather, Analyst Says
(The below 14 day forecast is not one suggesting any significant rain for the key grain growing regions of Australia - YC)
By Madelene Pearson
Aug. 29 -- Wheat production in Australia, the world's third-largest exporter of the grain, may be less than forecast as dry weather cuts yields, an industry analyst said.
The nation may produce 18 million metric tons of wheat this harvest, said Malcolm Bartholomaeus, an analyst with Callum Downs Commodity News who has covered the grains industry for at least 15 years. That compares to his earlier forecast of 21 million tons and a government estimate of 22.5 million tons.
A forecast more than doubling in Australian wheat production is being hampered by lingering dry weather, with below-average rain in most growing regions the past two months. Output could fall to 15 million tons, Bartholomaeus said.
``The forecast is for below-average rainfall, so to lose another 3 million tons down to 15 (million tons), given the weather forecast, has a reasonable probability,'' the Clare, South Australia-based analyst said in an interview today. ``If we get average rainfall for the rest of the growing season, we hold it at 18 million tons.''
Wheat for December delivery rose 0.25 cent to close yesterday at $7.3825 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices have soared 92 percent in the past year and reached a record $7.54 a bushel on Aug. 23 amid global production shortages.
