aussiebull says 'sell' - fair or unfair?, page-52

Hi MrMcGee,

Nice having you back so we can thrash out the numbers.
None of us ever get it all correct so its healthy to get different opinions.

Agree with you that if they get the $20M this quarter then they may have $15M Cash surplus.


Also agree with you about Alaska, I'd prefer to either sell it, put it on hold or farm out all the risk to someone who knows what they are doing.
If they don't they will likely waste $50M-$70M more on it in the Dec quarter.


Disagree however about why the SP dropped from $1.92 to $0.80.
A lot of that was due to lower production numbers, the Alaska stuff up and the high cash burn.

I know you said on 30th April production was increasing:
"The difference is 1,326bopd on average which is actually a little more than the report quoted [1,174]. So all in all the production [as represented by the $13m increase in sales], is on the up, not the down"


I think you will find out on Wed when you compare the average daily production quarter on quarter that I was right and production was dropping not increasing as you said.
Reason I say this is PB has not mentioned the actual production in the news letter apart from saying it has now doubled (he previously said tripled).



Also I note re Arckaringa that in the news letter this was way down the pecking order and PB said LNC would be doing further work themselves in the 2nd half of the year.
This to me says that no deal is likely in the near term as companies want more info before making a commitment.
There was also no mention of the 4 overseas potential partners.


Guess we will find out Friday who was right and who was wrong about the production.




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