I was reflecting on this the other day in another post.
When I step back a bit and look at the big picture, I am really encouraged. Despite the antics of the feds.
As you and I, and I'm sure many others, predicted, this thing is getting big really quickly.
Think back to just a few years ago when Turnbull got the flick. The fossil loving right wing of the Liberal Party appeared to easily have the upper hand. It was a bit depressing really.
Fast forward to now and we have Scott from marketing building a gas fired power station to keep the dinosaurs happy while at the same time admitting that we definitely have a renewable energy future. No doubt he has tried to slip in a sneaky one by giving his gas mates a green light.
However, the market is not listening. The market sees the future as green and now has it's own momentum. It is ignoring the feds. It is listening to the states and territories.
I have been following the hydrogen market a bit lately. In just one or two years the predictions from respected market analysts have been revised considerably. Yes, hydrogen has still a ways to go but it is surprising people just as solar, wind and batteries have previously.
This green revolution has real momentum. Sure, the feds appear to be chucking away $600-700 million on Kurri Kurri but I don't think that's the end of the world.
Here's why:
It will actually support renewable energy if needed. It might even help speed things up a bit while energy storage like the Tassie big battery and Snowy 2.0 get built. They will be 4-5 years behind the Kurri Kurri station so it could be an important bridge enabling more coal to shut down earlier.
It's an expensive insurance policy for sure but at least it's practical in terms of it's use as compared to a baseload cfps. It is not locking in fossil fuel forever.
Possibly it will be able to use a natural gas/hydrogen blend at some point also. There are plans for a big hydrogen industry in the Hunter. And , the site will eventually be suitable for large battery storage as well.
The second and other important point is that it will probably be the last largish fossil powered power station ever built in Australia. If it turns out that we don't need it as suspected, that means in three years time ( a year after completion ), it will confirm, once and for all, that Australia doesn't need any more fossil power. The argument will be over.
That is a pivotal point which is only 3 years away max. That's a blink of an eye.
Just as the ground breaking Hornsdale battery revolutionised the global battery market, the success or failure of the Kurri Kurri power station will send an important signal to the market.
If Australia can formerly prove that we don't need any more fossil, it will give others confidence to speed up their actions. That's a pretty good thing.
