Australia finally gets fuel efficiency standards, page-4

While it's long overdue , l don't think it's going to matter.

Change is coming so fast that l reckon the market is going to sort it quickly anyway.

l relistened to this Tony Seba podcast from last year . l've heard plenty from him before but l always find it interesting to revisit his stuff. There is always something more that you can learn .
Especially when you check whether his predictions have come true or not.

lt's well worth listening to if you've got the time . Not just from an ev point of view but from a technology and disruption view across all markets.

https://thedriven.io/2023/05/10/the-driven-podcast-tony-seba-on-the-rapid-switch-to-evs/

ln this podcast he talks about pivotal changes and why they are always from a convergence of technologies rather than just one thing by itself .

He uses the example of ev manufacturing in China. Not only can they make normal cars cheaper but they've figured out how to make evs cheaper. lt helps when you've got the biggest battery makers onside.

The major car companies are not able to build an ev at a competitive price so their market is moving away from them whether they like it or not. As the market moves away it shrinks. As it shrinks the manufacturers lose scale and the death spiral begins.

China rolled the dice on building evs year ago. lt seems they they have timed it beautifully .

https://hbr.org/2024/01/3-drivers-of-chinas-booming-electric-vehicle-market

The other problem for the legacy automakers is reliability . Evs are proving to have very long lives which means cars will need to be replaced less often. That means a shrinking automobile market overall.

l won't bother talking too much about self driving. l think it's still a while away but, as Seba points out , when it comes it's going to disrupt the car market enormously. The numbers are just too compelling.