Drought slashes Oz summer crop forecasts Tuesday, 20 February 2007
PRAYING FOR RAIN: The drought in Australia means the country will have to import grain for only the second time in its history.
SYDNEY: One of Australia's worst droughts on record has triggered savage cuts to official predictions of summer crops, after earlier cuts to winter crops, leaving the country's big farm sector hoping that forecast rain arrives.
The government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) today cut its forecast for Australia's total 2006/2007 summer crop by 59 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes, which would be the smallest in over 20 years.
The forecast for sorghum, the key summer grains crop, was cut by 51 per cent, almost certainly meaning Australia will have to import grain for only the second time in its history after a 61 percent fall in the 2006/07 key winter wheat crop.
"It's been a disastrous year. That is in line with what I would expect," Ingrid Richardson, agricultural analyst for farm specialist Rabobank Australia, said of the overall forecast.
The bureau's executive director, Phillip Glyde, said that Australia's water storages were near the lowest on record.
"Below average winter and spring rainfall resulted in depleted soil moisture profiles and water storages, severely limiting summer crop plantings," he said.
The bureau cut its forecast sorghum crop to 996,000 tonnes from its previous forecast of 2.02 million tonnes, last December. This is down from production of 2.02 million tonnes in 2005/06.
Bets on the size of the sorghum feed grain crop are influencing prices throughout Australia's grains complex as the country faces having to import grain again, after importing in 2003 due to the worst drought in 100 years.
The lower forecast for sorghum by the bureau cuts it to below other trade forecasts. Private group Australian Crop Forecasters last Friday cut its forecast to 1.14 million tonnes.
The bureau today also cut its forecasts for summer cotton lint and rice production, because of water shortages.
Cotton lint production is now forecast at 250,000 tonnes, down from the last forecast of 271,000 tonnes. Production in 2005/06 amounted to 597,000 tonnes.
Rice production is now forecast at 106,000 tonnes, down from the last forecast of 126,000 tonnes. Production in 2005/06 amounted to 1.05 million tonnes.
Lack of irrigation water for rice has resulted in the planting area falling by 89 per cent, while the area sown to cotton has fallen by 57 per cent, the bureau said.
Of the major winter grains, 2006/07 wheat production is estimated to have fallen by 61 per cent to 9.8 million tonnes, barley by 62 per cent to 3.7 million tonnes, canola by 64 per cent to 513,000 tonnes and lupins by 84 per cent to 174,000 tonnes.
ABARE noted that the Australian weather bureau sees an increased chance of widespread above-average rain for the late summer to mid-autumn period, from February to April, with a 50 per cent chance of at least median rainfall elsewhere.
"That would be fantastic if it arrived," grains broker Paul Cochrane of Fox Commodities said. "But growers will believe it when they see it."
