Subject Line: Storms Ahead The weather can turn fast in politics. Calm one day, storms the next. Steering the ship of state requires superior seamanship: foresight,agility and sound decision-making. A storm is now brewing for the Albanese government. On Thursday, the Pentagon confirmed that the U.S. is reviewing the AUKUS agreement, casting a shadow over our future submarine program.
Today, the Israelis struck targets deep inside Iran including military leaders, nuclear scientists and military installations.
Both events, although unconnected, engage the Australian national interest. First, the AUKUS review. The fact that the Americans are reviewing the AUKUS agreement indicates a diminishing lack of confidence in Australia as a security partner. Yes, the U.S. has a growing scarcity of nuclear submarines, with their shipyards delivering less than two submarines per year. On this point, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby—an advocate of ‘America First’ policy—has made it clear that the U.S. should prioritise its own navy before delivering submarines to Australia. But the deeper truth is that the Albanese government has shown no urgency or vigour in its pursuit of the AUKUS objectives.
The clock is ticking, and Australia is behind on important milestones. Defence spending is too little; ADF recruitment and retention remains below target; investment into critical AUKUS infrastructure is delayed; and we haven't demonstrated how we can add value to the U.S. supply chain.
There is a backlog of U.S. submarine deep maintenance that needs to be remedied, and the Albanese government has not invested and built our capacity to support this work on Australian shores. Nor has the Labor government reminded the United States that AUKUS deepens their strategic geography through the basing of U.S. submarines at HMAS Stirling in Perth from 2027.Instead the Albanese government has been flatfooted on all the key challenges to AUKUS, and now the whole project looks more uncertain than it did two years ago.
Second, the Israeli strike on Iran. There is much more to this than has been reported already. I hesitate to speculate on what has happened, and what will happen incoming days. But two principles are important here. The first is that Iran must not be able to acquire nuclear weapons.Such a development would be injurious to world peace, as we must assume that they would use it against their enemies—including Israel.The second is that Israel has an inherent right to self-defence. A right that we insist for ourselves.Iran has been the sponsor of terrorist acts taken against Israel by Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. Why would we expect them not to use nuclear weapons against Israel? The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has spoken openly of “wiping out Israel”. I suspect the use of nuclear weapons against Israel would be immensely tempting for the Supreme Leader and the Iranian regime. This would have been part of Israel’s strategic calculus, hence the pre-emptive strike today. Both the AUKUS review and Israel’s strike into Iran remind us of big underlying challenges for Australia.
As strategic disorder breaks out again in the Middle East, we are reminded that our lines of trade and communication remain fragile. We have chosen, naively and unwisely, to deindustrialise Australia over the last forty years on the false assumption that U.S. power would remain unchallenged, and that global supply chains would remain uninterrupted. Today our advanced manufacturing sector is tiny, and we are entirely dependent upon the importation of liquid fuel. That means that distant wars can compromise or sever our vital supply chains, leaving us exposed to economic shocks and strategic coercion.
Moreover, the U.S. AUKUS review is a huge vote of no-confidence from our American friends. It reminds us that even close strategic partnerships are shaped by self-interest, and that we should always have a plan to be able to defend Australia alone—at least for a period of time, until the benefits of coalition warfare can be realised. That’s the lesson from Ukraine and Israel over the last three years, and one that we should take seriously.
Finally, there’s the reality of our uncertain and unhappy domestic situation here in Australia. The last two years have seen our social cohesion stretched and frayed by people who nurse ancient and foreign grievances in Australia. Jewish Australians feel under siege in Australia, a country that was once a place of refuge for many after the horrors of the Holocaust. This must stop, and it will only stop with strong moral leadership from our Prime Minister. As I look ahead, I see nothing but stormy waters. The Prime Minister needs to sharpen up because we can’t afford as hipwreck—especially when it’s within our power to change course and avoid the rocks. Regards Andrew Hastie www.andrewhastie.com.au
