I don't want to put a dampener on your valuation party here, but there are a bunch of flaws in your thinking.
1. "Worst case 6 billion shares" Not sure where you get that from. We need $3.3 billion. If (and this would be worst case), the funds are raised at current SP levels with no debt, $3.3 bill at 15c is another 22 billion shares! Now I don't think for a moment that they will raise the entire $3.3 bill with share issues but your so called "worst case" is not. You will also have to factor in the cost of this equity and and/or debt, once the ratio is set.
2. Your valuation of the potential income of the project may be close to the mark, but this does not translate to valuation of the company at any particular date. Rather, the valuation of the company is the Present Value of the income flows using appropriate discount rates. Another way of putting this is using a PE ratio after factoring in debt levels, and any potential for increasing the earnings. If we think that a PE ratio of 12 (conservative) is close to the mark, then multiply that by the estimated annual earnings and then discount for Cam Govt percentage, and dilution factor of our shareholding and then arrive at a number.
There are a heap of variables that are going to throw all sorts of spanners in the above but a SP of over $10 is fanciful, but a SP well north of where we are now is not. $1 to $2 may happen and that is why i have held and continue to hold for the long term.
SDL Price at posting:
14.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
