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06/09/16
11:35
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Originally posted by airconditioner
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You think it might be faster than that? Me too.
One word.
Cost.
Battery prices are plummeting from giga-factory scale, even as lithium prices go up.
And more powerful at the same time via R&D competition.
Electric vehicles will be far cheaper to produce at volume.
Simple drive train to install in comparison to the number of parts in a convention petrol engine.
They're faster, cleaner, cheaper to maintain, safer and integrate perfectly with digital control.
They cost a fraction to run - or free via solar.
The auto-pilot functions and systems that once cost 10s of thousands per vehicles are being implemented for hundreds.
Tesla plans include your ability to assign it to work as an auto-piloted uber taxi for you during the day to earn money and/or after recharging sell their excess power back to the grid or make it available to your home.
Infrastructure to mandate external car charging ports is now part of Chinese building code and is being introduced in some parts of Europe.
Then, by no means the smallest reason - there is the huge environmental impact - EVs would result in a massive reduction in annual global emissions. This is the whole point of the Paris Climate Agreement.
Norway will be 100% EV in a little over 8 years.
Why would you think the rest of the world would be so far behind?
Why would you even consider buying a petrol car as soon as the electric car was better by every single measure - cleaner, quieter, cheaper, safer and faster?
Once the petrol stations start going out of business then it's game over.
At that point it isn't even our decision any more.
If you can't get fuel as easily as you can today then the ICE age is over.
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More to the point "sunk costs" - a corolla you buy today costs around 20k (basic) and will run for 20 years. No one is just gong to throw that away while it is still running and costs are not excessive, so the transition time is not based on a sudden event.
Not only that, if a lot of electric vehicles come on the market and demand for oil is less, then petrol won't cost so much.
This problem is intricate and intertwined, not an open loop.
Last edited by
Juno :
06/09/16