2019 - 2020
Forecast a lot trickier as Indian and Pacific Ocean origins.
Basically the idea is to see if the tracks and Cyclone counts are similar .
Last year was an exceptional result comparing two seasons especially in timing of Indian or Pacific Ocean tracks... and what I noticed was that the synoptic chart comparisons between 1944 / 2019 would look similar but not always produce a cyclone..
Last Years thread:
https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/australian-cyclone-forecast-using-74-4-year-cycle.4610895/
Also allowed for an education in the climate influences of IOD, MJO and ENSO .
1945/46 Season not a lot of data but some Cyclone Tracks to follow with no Intensity recorded against them.
http://www.australiasevereweather.c..._1946_australian_region_tropical_cyclones.htm
BOM OUTLOOK 2019-2020
Fewer cyclones than average likely for Australia this season
The tropical cyclone outlook Australian regions
Fewer than average numbers of tropical cyclones are expected in the Australian region for the 2019–20 cyclone season (November–April)
On average, there are 9 to 13 tropical cyclones each season in the Australian region, four of which typically cross the coast.
At least one tropical cyclone has crossed the Australian coast each season since reliable records began in the 1970s.
Higher than average pressure over northern Australia and a neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have influenced this year's tropical cyclone outlook.
During ENSO-neutral cyclone seasons, the first cyclone to cross the coast is typically in late December.
Cyclone formation is rarely spread evenly throughout the season; often quiet periods are followed by bursts of activity.
Outlook influences
This outlook is based on the historical relationships between the status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the preceding July to September and the subsequent tropical cyclone season. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have been ENSO-neutral since April 2019. All eight international climate models surveyed by the Bureau predict tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures will remain within neutral ENSO bounds until at least February 2020. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was close to zero throughout July and August but exceeded El Niño thresholds in September, primarily due to higher than average pressure at Darwin. The corresponding pressure in Tahiti was within normal bounds, suggesting the September SOI value was not related to a developing El Niño. Recent seasonal trends in Darwin may be related to the current record-strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole—another of Australia's major climate drivers, and the cooler waters surrounding northern Australia.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
