australian first by z1p - todays fin, page-34

Well done on your BIG profit and buying into Z1P.

Trying to pick a bottom, i have always found difficult. What i am comfortable about after speaking with the company is the strategy of the business and the potential to improve free cash flow in time. This is not a company in a point in the cycle where a pure P/E or EV/EBITDA can be used as a valuation.

IMO it is playing the right game and has some hidden profit streams that i recommended to them to explore (so in time we will see if it converts).

I remain very impressed with the business and have been accumulating recent weakness.

Here are some quotes to consider on trying to find a bottom - i really like these ....

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“It’s difficult - and, I later came to conclude, impossible - to determine turning points” Paul Singer

“Since the “bottom” is only declared in retrospect, those who wait for it almost always go away empty-handed” Frank Martin

“You must buy on the way down. There is far more volume on the way down than on the way up, and far less competition among buyers. It is almost always better to be too early than too late, but you must be prepared for price markdowns on what you buy” Seth Klarman

“In my experience, most people who are lucky enough to sell something before it goes down get so busy patting themselves on the back they forget to buy it back.” Howard Marks

"While it is always tempting to try to time the market and wait for the bottom to be reached (as if it would be obvious when it arrived), such a strategy has proven over the years to be deeply flawed. Historically, little volume transacts at the bottom or on the way back up and competition from other buyers will be much greater when the market settle down and the economy begins to recover. Moreover, the price recovery from a bottom can be swift. Therefore, an investor should put money to work amidst the throes of a bear market, appreciating things will likely get worse before they get better" Seth Klarman

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