noticed you haven't updated your auction clearance series yet, you have been so quick in the past?
And I have noticed you didn't seem interested in those auction threads, but suddenly with a small uptick in clearance rates you're even starting your own ;)
What use is an increase in building starts when new home sales are still plunging (as per yesterdays HIA figures)?
I've never predicted a big drop. I'm expecting a slow deflation in prices.
To counter your list of positives, we have (recently):
- Stock on market continuing to increase (7+ months supply)
- New home sales fell 7% MoM (HIA)
- Lending continues to slow (see AFG July figures)
- 6 interest rate rises over 18 months
- Threat of tighter lending/independent rate rises
- FIRB laws tightened & FHOB removed
- Clearance rates recovered slightly, but still not high
