Australian Sceptics

Originally posted by stevo ↑

I don't know why you would think this has anything to do with the media. This is about the hypotheses of the rate of warming caused bt GHG's. I seem to remember claims of up to 5 or more degrees. Now down to 1.5 ? without looking it up. Absolutely massive difference and shows just how far out warmists really were/are.

"
A Dutch Action is the reverse of a standard auction – instead of the price starting low, with each bid driving the price up, a Dutch Auction inverts this process – the price starts high, and slowly drops until a bid is placed. The winner of the Dutch auction is the first person to make a bid.
Something very similar is happening right now in the world of mainstream climate science, as scientists struggle to fit a growing body of adverse data to their increasingly shaky theories of imminent catastrophic global warming, by slowly ratcheting down their estimates of climate sensitivity, while doing all in their power to avoid conceding that skeptics have been right all along.
The latest bid in the climate Dutch Auction comes from a paper published in Nature. According to authors Markus Huber & Reto Knutti, if you dial down transient climate response to 1.8c / doubling of CO2, and conceded around 0.15c to a combination of bad luck (lack of El Nino events) and the drop in solar activity, and squint really hard, you can just about fit the data to the models."

Here is a grouping of bids, er, transient climate sensitivity values with Huber and Knutti added as a vertical line in bright green:

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The projections are a 'range' with a MU. In your example 5oC would low probability with high MU, 1.5oC High probability, lower MU.

What the 'media' (FOS false sceptics) is use 'low probability, high MU' as a straw-man for the whole 'range'.
This is what Rob Carter does.

When you cut to the claim, its like they are saying,
"the low probability isn't <1% , with >70%MU it really <0.5% probability with >90%MU"

Which isn't a 'big deal' and isn't 'debunking AGW', it would be a straw-man.

Plus in a chaotic system the 'energy' would have different interacting with any given variable causing 'feedback' etc. Butterfly effect