The projections are a 'range' with a MU. In your example 5oC would low probability with high MU, 1.5oC High probability, lower MU.
What the 'media' (FOS false sceptics) is use 'low probability, high MU' as a straw-man for the whole 'range'.
This is what Rob Carter does.
When you cut to the claim, its like they are saying,
"the low probability isn't <1% , with >70%MU it really <0.5% probability with >90%MU"
Which isn't a 'big deal' and isn't 'debunking AGW', it would be a straw-man.
Plus in a chaotic system the 'energy' would have different interacting with any given variable causing 'feedback' etc. Butterfly effect
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