australian stockbrokers - wake up!, page-96

ok, so none of you have any real idea because we havent heard one way or the other.

"Total capex for the project is forecast by the company at ZAR 284m (US$ 42m) including a contingency of ZAR 23m and will be funded from existing cash, cash flows, and a debt facility. We understand that the split in funding has been finalised at 70:30 in favour of debt and that debt funding with ABSA is close to finalisation."

Is taken from the OPLC, this still hasnt been confirmed and these deals which are 'said' to be near completion can fall over as 'near' completion often is just a management ramp.

Anyone who thinks the recent trading (which has been exactly the same as the trading for the past 4 months) is sign of a cap raising needs to get their head checked.

Talking about current cash position is fine and I would be shocked if they had 20 mill left to drawdown on from the EDF loans(from my calcs its only 5 left), but this doesnt necessarily mean there will be a cap raising.

Any company can cap raise at any time, obviously, but selling out now for fear of an imminent cap raise would be quite a stupid thing to do in my honest opinion.

They have 2 mines running operational profits.
They have an IO sale that should bank 9 odd million (Something that needs to be confirmed soon imo, we NEED an update on this)
They are obviously in negotiations for debt funding re: Penumbra as we speak. Management believe they are 'close' to finalising a deal, but this could mean anything so we'll just leave it at 'in negotiations'.

The idea of cap raise just seemed to come out of nowhere and bandwagon jumpers seem to jump all over the idea.

Oh, and to anyone who says having less shares on issue= less shareholders really needs to learn some basic level maths.

Q. If we have 10000 unique shareholders, and we then halve the number of shares on issue, how many shareholders do we have?
A. 10000

Seriously, is it that hard to understand.

A tighter registry comes from having bigger insto share holders and a firmer top 20. Having a number 1 holder who wasnt trading the stock rampantly would help also. Less shares on issue DOESNT help this, except that its a self fulling prophecy due to the implied psychology impact of having less shares on issue. Emperor's new clothes phenomenon.