EXCELLENT NEWS FOR LYNAS BOTTOM LINE ........
The Australian dollar could face a "benign collapse" to US66¢ by the end of next year amid falling commodity prices, declining mining investment and reduced government spending, Deutsche Bank says in one of the most bearish forecasts for the local currency.
The plunge in the Australian dollar to the mid-US60¢ would come about if the Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on hold until 2016, if the US lifts its rates by mid-2015 and if the United States' dollar continues to strengthen, Deutsche Bank's chief economist for Australia Adam Boyton said.
The forecast would see the exchange rate fall to its lowest levels since the financial crisis.
The German bank joins US investment bank Goldman Sachs in a similarly bearish outlook for the local currency. Goldman Sachs analysts tips the currency to tumble below US70¢ in the next two years as reserve managers at central banks reduce their demand for the Australian dollar, and as global demand for commodities falls.
A US65¢ number is quite possible in a negative scenario for China and much weaker commodity prices, and maybe a degree of financial stress in China, which has bigger global implications. "
The modelling showed that a large part of the Australian dollar's fall could come about next year, as the bank expects the Fed to start lifting interest rates from their near-zero levels in mid-2015 after it completes its tapering of its unprecedented monthly bond-buying program.
The highest, lowest and median forecasts for the Australian dollar against the US dollar over the next few years.
The highest, lowest and median forecasts for the Australian dollar against the US dollar over the next few years.
At the same time, the strengthening of the US dollar, which currency strategists expect to take place as the Fed withdraws its stimulus this year, would also contribute to the weakening local currency, Mr Boyton added. Deutsche Bank tips the US dollar to rise by 20 per cent against the euro and by 17 per cent against the Japanese yen over the next two years.
IF THIS $ LEVEL EVENTUATES IT WILL ADD 33% OF PROFIT ON THE BOTTOM LINE JUST ON CURRENCY CONVERSION.......
GO LYNAS GO.....ha its been a year at least since we heard this slogan...
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