Even though Shorten rated better in the trustworthy stakes than Abbott (2% difference), you still have those advocating Abbott be brought back, so trustworthy does not appear to be the main issue for advocating a PM for some people.
A lot is riding on what Turnbull does between now and the election, the type of budget and the direction he advocates taking Australia.
Turnbull's actions will have the biggest impact on Shorten's chances, if Turnbull gets it right, Shorten can kiss his a... good-bye, if Turnbull gets it wrong, it will be anybodies game come the election.