You only want to trade Rinker if you believe you are better in...

You only want to trade Rinker if you believe you are better in predicting the outcome of the bid than the market.

At this stage, based on the ADR $18+ price, the market believes $17 to be an ambit claim and expects a higher bid. But that is not much help because $18 is a composite of the odds of a higher bid and the odds of the bid failing. However, if the bid succeeds, the offer will be substantially better than $18.

And if the bid fails ......