Only since we are talking possibilities and in the spirit of pure discussion/speculation...
To those who may be tempted to test their life coaching skills reading this - I am well aware of the consequences of my own decisions and the downside if things are rough. Chances of a positive announcement hang in the balance, a lot think it wont come and theres every chance that may end up being the case; with one day left it has slipped to a fanciful thought.
In saying all that, I always intended to see it out to this point so I focus on the positive because they are more exciting and this gives me confidence. This late in the game I still cant shake off the good vibes that AUZ/macro environment have given me and since we are all aware of the negative possibilities, I will post this extremely one-minded fanciful thought.
IF all the 'timely' coincidences that have been posted here lately are lined up in a positive fashion - and -
IF we add that to all previous positive suggestions surrounding financing the mine(from AUZ/NAIF/SKI)
WARNING Only the most extreme positive suggestions are posted below. If you are not comfortable please look away now.
I dont think a T/O is on the cards - “While a Final Investment Decision is getting nearer, in reality, this is just the beginning as we embark on transforming Australian Mines into a significant Australian mining house.” (BB, last quarterly)
BB - "You know who" will fund the mine
NAIF - QLD prescribed project(yes I know they are different bodies vintage) but positive govt vibes
SOPHIA/AUZ - NAIF financing the lot isn't off the table(it has been posted here, not sure how true, however if so an indication of how the project is viewed) if not true that's fine as I believe it could be a priority for them even if they didn't fund the lot.
SKI - Will wait for govt grants before commiting(based on previous examples with giga factories around the world)
SH's - No communication from company, in lockdown. Hotcopper in despair mode.
"INSIDERS" - no guidance from the mystical creature.
Based on the above - IF this is gonna happen tomorrow - it will have been extremely well organised(goes without saying) but it could also be unique/a special case. IF its been extremely well orchastrated then I expect multiple lenders similar as has been discussed by some posters - however if it is to be this scenario of obtaining funding - at this 11th hour the possibility has definitely faded somewhat.
That only leaves me with the fantasy scenario - my research, bias, intuition, faith in management and most of all my hope that all is as has been portrayed - has led me to here. IF it is to be a unique case(for a reasonably unique scenario-taking macro situation in consideration) Here goes
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- The trade minister Simon Birmingham's trip to SK was no coincidence, he has provided assurances to S.K officials that govt(naif) backing for the project is certain. As with most other countries it has dealings with, SKI were waiting this development. LFA signed. Now they will carry out their final DD and wait for AUZ/NAIF to put its money where its mouth is.
- Matt Canavan(NAIF minister) has visited just this week(24th/25th). The expected offer has come through and been signed off. NAIF will fund a large chunk.
- DD complete, offer in place, SKI have pre-empted this scenario and will now sell off a chunk of their oil assets(BB - London) they will re-invest in battery sector.
- They will use some or all of the money to invest/loan to AUZ. Taking up their 19.9% and or matching(naif)/providing a large chunk as a loan to AUZ. With this plan largely just been waiting on being rubber stamped(no 4th party organisations/lenders to deal with) for the last few months(NAIF holdup), it can be pulled together fairly quickly. Thereby AUZ been majority financed by the two main organisations(Aus govt and SKI/S.K govt arms)
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Would explain the lack of the Lough Ness monster if nothing else
If it doesn't happen, its been an enjoyable journey.
Fingers crossed. Anything is possible. GLTA
(20min delay)