Hi folks
I planted some seed capital in FFT a number of years ago , before they become AVA. Underwater for a long time, so I put them on the forget shelf. But now the real revenue is starting to flow and it reflects in the SP.
I use weekly charts with 10WMA , 40WMA , RSI=5, Macd and Stochs.
I am bullish on stocks when the weekly hi-low candle first trades entirely above the 10WMA and remain bullish until the weekly hi-lo candle trades entirely below the 10WMA (ignoring the weeks that cut into the 10WMA.) then I am bearish.
Well with AVA looking at the charts Current bullish signal in this run occurred in the week 3rd March closing at 16c. Since that week there has been no bearish signals 27 weeks.. The 10WMA has been rising steeply and crossed the 40WMA which is also rising strongly.
So how far can this run take us? I use Fibs so that I am not surprised when things eventuate (I don't entirely swear by them but have found them to be a very very useful tool).
Fibs
A wave 23 Mar 20 from 8c to a high of 73.5c on the 25 Oct ( there were small fibs all along this period, but concentrating on the big show).
B wave ( profit taking retracement that has to happen, to shake out the weak holders for the next run) 25 Oct at 73.5c to currently a low of 53c which is about a 31% retracement very normal , it is possible that this retracement could continue down to 48c and ret=38%, It won't phase me if it happens, but I am doubtful with the recent strength of the US markets. I suspect that the new government is going to print money like crazy, much more quantative easing
C wave extensions Ext23.6%=89c , Ext 38.2% = 98.5c , Ext 50%= 1.06 and finally Ext 61.8%= 1.14
There will be another profit taking retracement period to shake out the next set of weak holders. I suspect that this happen in the 1.00 to 1.15 range.
For those of you that like charts have a look at AVA going back 5 years.
Can you see a huge cup forming, A classic for a cup and handle patterns.
So if we get to the 1.10 -1.15 mark we need to form the handle downwards before the next upwards surge.
So using fibs A wave 8c to 1.15 a B wave retracement yields Ret 23.6% =90c , Ret 38.2 = 75c.
Will I panic if this happens after hitting 1.15, No.
Its the set up for the next big surge.
All of this is how I use charts to interpret the markets. Just my opinion , DYOR.
cheers Lies
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