AVA ava risk group limited

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yeah basically he’s saying nothing is about to happen in 2026.I...

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fcmaster26

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28/05/25

09:48

Post #: 79215163
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Originally posted by SteveSage: ↑

https://vi meo.com/1087606150/ea3fbeab3e

Get rid of the space between VI & MEO to play.

I watched the video and a few takeaways:
- Mal seems very confident that the company is on a growth path (just lumpy)
- last 2 years has been one of standardising the offering and changing the commercial (sales?) team
- OPEX is fixed, so any revenue growth will drop to the bottom line
- contracts take long to lock down ($100-300k takes around 6-9 mths, while $1-4m takes 1-3yrs), but he is confident that that pipeline is growing
- the guide the provided was indicative rather than a forecast (but frankly that is still very questionable, and even though he didn't appreciate the issue when he first stepped in, he has stuck to that view and I think that is not correct).
- not much said about telstra, although he did indicate that telcos move very slowly and they have done the adjustment to their fibre to adapt it for undersea cables so presumably ready to go
- quite some discussion on AI/ML and leveraging the data they are collecting from existing installations, but to me the recurring side (which includes maintenance, upgrades to software still seems relatively modest and Mal indicated he wants this to grow to 10% of revenues (so to me looks pretty small)

Andrew Page from *** seems a huge fan, so the 'interview' was not a tough one (well not at all), and 95% of the conversation was around detect, so I still wonder what access/illuminate adds (and frankly someone should have asked that question).

Anyway, I don't believe anything really changes.....this is a slow moving boat and he also indicated that the dramas with tariffs are going to pause some CAPEX by infrastructure firms so could be another 12-18mths before we see much change in this space.

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yeah basically he’s saying nothing is about to happen in 2026.
I do like the part when he explains how the business has changed. Changing from a subcontractor to working with clients directly is definitely fundamental.

AVA Price at posting: 10.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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