AVB 0.00% 16.5¢ avanco resources limited

avb evaluation

  1. 2,057 Posts.
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    I think most of us have arrived at the general consensus that AVB is very much undervalued at the moment (like most commoditiy stocks at the moment), however, I set out to find an evaluation for what we have and how undervalued we actually are. I was looking through Bell potter's analysis of AVB on the 17th of April 2011, and decided to put in the numbers we have today into that evaluation, and see what I would get:

    Here is the extract I used from the report:
    "Based on “industry rules of thumb” for comparable transactions over the past five years, we have used 3% of the copper spot price (US$8,255/t) for the in ground value of the copper resources (US$247/t) and we have used 2% of the spot gold price (US$1,660/oz) for the in ground value of the gold resources (US$33/oz). This compares reasonably with copper transactions in South America"

    Now in the recent qtrly, these numbers were given as our JORC for stage 1,2
    :60.64Mt at 1.24% Copper, 0.33g/t Gold for 755,000 tonnes of contained Copper and 638,000oz of Gold7

    i used a copper price of around 7410 usd/t and a gold price of 1390 usd/oz


    Using the 3% in ground evaluation of copper and 2% for gold, I got:

    CU: .03* 7410 * 755,000= $167.8m

    Au: .02* 1390 * 638,000 = $ 17.7m

    Now 167.8+17.7+ 5.5m (cash in bank)=
    A market cap of around
    $191m

    Now take all this with a grain of salt, as many many factors are being dismissed, ie market sentiment at the moment. Also with funding around the corner, this would make evaluations different. But I guess I just liked to DMOR and thought I'd share it.

    Today we sit at a MC of around 70m at 6.3c, a MC of 191m would be a sp of around 17.4c.

    There is good value here IMO and that is just when the cu/au is in the ground, once we starting digging it up, or getting ready to dig it up, evaluations should be higher.
    What are everyone's thoughts? Ludicrous evaluation? Have I missed something?

    Cheers

    (I'm am just an average joe just trying to get my head around the value of avb, everything is in my opinion and shouldn't be seen as investment advice in anyway, I'm as clueless as the next guy/gal and am not qualified to give out advice)

    PS, we have JORC upgrades coming as well

 
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