LYC lynas rare earths limited

average down - lyc, can it work?

  1. 8,918 Posts.
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    I've read a fair few posts on LYC thread about claims of buying initially at prices of over $1 and now the claim is an average down to somewhere near the current SP.

    I'm intrigued as to how this has been possible with the current history of LYC.

    If one starts with $10k investment at $1, (at $2 it gets really horrible) and doubles the number of shares at every 20% drop in the SP, then A) one has to have very deep pockets, B) the paper loss keeps getting bigger, C) the risk to their wealth becomes overbearing.

    Above assumes that the initial punt was for a reasonable % of available funds, otherwise why invest in the first place?

    I may have my numbers wrong and would be glad to correct if I've made an error in my calculations, but the following was my attempt to try and understand how this could work.

    If these numbers are correct the after 4 tries at averaging down, the total investment is now 18 times the original investment and a paper loss of 3 times the original investment. In the example it assumes the last big punt occurred at 48C, and this is the bottom (?). With the current SP of 55C the paper loss would still be more than the original investment.

    It is very easy maths, and so if anyone with a calculator could validate, or show the logic error. Maybe I'm just not understanding the maths.



 
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$8.27
Change
-0.070(0.84%)
Mkt cap ! $7.736B
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No. Vol. Price($)
2 184 $8.27
 

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Price($) Vol. No.
$8.28 38197 5
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