Allan forced to release Victoria’s secret solar modelling
Gus McCubbing and
Patrick Durkin
Feb 4, 2025 – 6.41pm
The Victorian government has released secret energy modelling warning about the impact of rooftop solar on the energy grid after a one-year legal battle, as Premier Jacinta Allan rejected claims she ignored warnings about a looming gas shortage.
The modelling by engineering firm Jacobs in 2021 warned that Victoria’s minimal operational demand for power was projected to deteriorate because of the increasing contribution of rooftop solar, shifting the lowest-load periods to the middle of the day and creating “new challenges” for the electricity system.
Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan has been defending the government’s record on gas. AAP
The warning led to
emergency powers being introduced in October last year requiring rooftop solar installers to add a solar emergency backstop device on any solar system.
The 70-page Jacobs modelling document was only released to the shadow energy and resources minister David Davis and provided to
The Australian Financial Review this week, after a 12-month freedom of information battle.
It comes after the Victorian Labor government kept secret more than 40 documents detailing deals with AGL and EnergyAustralia to
keep coal power stations operating for up to a decade, while also pledging to hit 95 per cent renewables by 2035.
This is government secrecy at its worst – taxpayer-funded modelling should available and should not require a legal fight,” Mr Davis said. “What do they have to hide?
“In its headlong rush to low emission technologies, it has failed to plan and support a safe and reliable power network under low demand conditions. “Victoria’s power system is a shambles and the Jacobs paper makes clear the lack of proper planning.”
Reliability and solar boosted
Energy and Resources Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said introducing emergency powers for solar was in line with other states.
“Victoria has introduced an emergency backstop mechanism to improve reliability and manage the increased uptake of solar. This allows even more solar to be installed, lowering wholesale prices further and reducing power bills,” she said.
Parts of Melbourne reached close to 40 degrees before a late change on Tuesday, after the city’s heatwave
pushed demand on the state’s energy supplies to historic highs on Monday.
She pointed to the government’s approval in June last year of
the state’s first new gas extraction project in a decade near Port Campbell, near the Twelve Apostles.
“Now we have made changes last year to support the gas industry … but we also need to accept reality in terms of the gas reserves that Victoria has historically relied on.
“This is why the national conversation is so important. It’s why we support calls for a domestic reserve in terms of the abundant gas that’s found in other parts of the state being made available for domestic use.”
Mr Davis also criticised the government for
recently announcing a massive cut in feed in tariffs for solar. The amount of rooftop solar in Victoria has increased by 76 per cent since 2019, from approximately 446,000 systems to 787,000, the Essential Services Commission said last month.
Victorians with rooftop solar were told last month they would get virtually nothing for selling their excess power to the grid under a draft decision to slash the minimum amount that energy retailers must pay to household customers by 99 per cent.
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