FWIW here’s another link to the budget story featuring AVL from...

FWIW here’s another link to the budget story featuring AVL  from the AFR [AFR Budget story by Ben Potter ].

I referenced it again as I was wondering  if  the reason Ben chose Graham to interview - out of all possible candidates - had anything to do with a nudge from Regal and Tribeca ?

Some will remember Ben Potter foreshadowed the merger back in June last year (three months before the official intentions were released!) in a story strongly based on Regal and Tribeca vouchsafing further support if the companies joined .

Spoiler : Here is that story

https://www.afr. com/policy/energy-and-climate/regal-funds-tribeca-push-for-vanadium-minnows-to-merge-20230626-p5djku

Regal Funds, Tribeca push for vanadium minnows to merge
Ben PotterSenior writer
Jun 27, 2023 – 4.27pm​

Tribeca and Regal Funds Management are pushing for a merger of the joint owners of an undeveloped vanadium deposit in Western Australia to take advantage of billions of dollars being poured into “critical minerals”.

Technology Metals Australia and Australian Vanadium jointly own the Murchison Technology Metals Project (MTMP), a high-purity vanadium resource 50 kilometres southeast of Meekatharra in WA’s mid-West.

Technology Metals says it can meet 6 per cent of world demand for the metal, production of which is currently dominated by China, Russia and South Africa


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Tribeca and Regal joined Resource Capital Funds – a consortium of private equity investors – on Technology Metals’ register early this month as part of an $11.5 million capital raising.
Resource Capital Funds is Technology Metals’ largest shareholder and also sits on Australian Vanadium’s register.

Vanadium is the raw material for vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFBs) – a battery technology that has been left languishing in favour of lithium-ion.
But proponents say it is better for long-duration grid storage – which is vital for thefaltering energy transition – and has a superior performance in conditions of extreme heat, with a lower propensity to catch fire and a lighter environmental footprint. It is on critical minerals lists in Australia, the United States and the European Union.

Regal’s analyst, Henry Renshaw, believes vanadium redox flow batteries will play a significant role in energy storage over the next decade.
A 2 megawatt, 8-megawatt hour VRFB is being built near Port Augusta, South Australia, at the Yadlamalka Energy Project, and Stephanie Unwin, CEO of Horizon Power, said last week the regional WA power utility was also looking at VRFBs.

“The [Murchison Technology Metals Project] is shaping up to be one of the best undeveloped vanadium projects globally,” Mr Renshaw said.
“We ... consider this to be quite a unique situation where two companies, Technology Metals and Australian Vanadium, each own half of the same orebody. We can see value to be created for the shareholders on both sides through logical consolidation and expect Regal would play a material role in construction funding once there is more clarity on the development pathway.”
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Tribeca portfolio manager Ben Cleary said a consolidation of the ownership of the MTMP deposit was logical, “and if that were to happen, we’d look at materially increasing our position in support of the project’s development”.


Positive on price outlook

“We think vanadium from the MTMP will become the preferred vanadium exposure globally,” Mr Cleary said.
“Over 85 per cent of supply currently comes from Russia, China and South Africa, so we expect there will be a premium applied to a quality Australian producer. We are positive on the vanadium price outlook as we believe redox flow batteries will be increasingly critical as part of the energy transition.”


Technology Metals chief executive Ian Prentice said he understood the view that separate exploitation of a single orebody “may not always be the most efficient use of capital” but “our view is that we’ve got a project that is a very, very strong project and is good to go as an independent project”.

The MTMP is a 154 million tonne resource at grades of 0.89 per cent vanadium pentoxide – the precursor to vanadium electrolyte used in VRFB batteries – and concentrate grades up to 1.6 per cent. Vanadium is mostly used for hardening steel for defence and aviation purposes, but Technology Metals says VRFB batteries are expected to grow from their limited deployment today to require 33 per cent of global vanadium supply by 2030.

Technology Metals and Australian Vanadium are minnows – valued at $67 million and $158 million respectively – with large ambitions. That makes the support of deep-pocketed shareholders critical.
Technology Metals said last August it was budgeting $604 million for its proposed developments.

And whether or not they nudged Ben, I wonder if they’re the ones who are nudging the price a bit now?

And, as you can see from the story on the spoiler the combined value of both companies as at EOFY 2023 was about $225m
According to the ASX we’re just over   half that now - even with the 1.7c open



So if we were ‘minnows’ back then what now?
And what will it take for AVL to no longer swim through the net of that fleet of larger investors out there?

And are Regal and Tribeca (and Shaw - who instituted coverage with a target of 8c  three weeks back) ready to start helping on the market side of things yet.

cheers