This also supports why I have been making a fuss about what might seem an obvious 'goes without saying' point, but the fact they have not clearly communicated on how they are bringing some of the friction points between AVL and TMT together, it's a big fail and failures contribute to selling, simple.
And of course, I am talking about the processing plants that are near 500kms apart.
We talk about the merger seeing both companies individually and now together have their market cap in a steady downward trend since it was announced.
Why should that be bad when you have just merged two companies that were competing for the same offtake, same funding, same attention in a small market, same orebody which frees up onsite logistics and a truly optimized mine plan.. How does any of these 1+1 = 3 scenario actually end up being 1+1 = 0.5 by how things are going?
To me I don't think it can be played down, the fact that there absolutely were non synergistic ways each company went about reaching the end goal, and NO ONE has done a good enough job acknowledging these or putting any of it to bed.
At merger announcement, you had TMT holders believing, we HAVE an optimized plan and near EPA approval to take the next step, why does adding AVL help that? And AVL holders believing their plan was solid with the vertical strategy (battery electrolyte, mine) progressing and already a huge mine life + government support, why do we need to add TMT's ore?
So no one saw a true benefit to what they had already (if you entirely exclude the competition factor).
But it's the completely different plans of progress that I beleive has left the most uncertainty and has to be a big contributor to why no one is touching this with a stick since the merger announcement and people are regularly bailing.
Everyone knew what they had before, what they were backing, the plan to get them there, and could make a pretty informed decision whether they saw success or not.
Now to put it plainly we have no friggin idea.
We have an EPA approval document maybe a Month or two away that may be 90% worthless if we are processing near Geraldton. Maybe that's why it has garnered zero anticipation?
Do I think management ultimately know the way forward? Likely but also maybe not.
Do I think the communication about elephants in the room has been absolutely down right sh!thouse for the last 6 Months? Yes
Has it improved one iota now the deal is done and you think they can speak feely? NOPE.
It says to me management are happy to take their paycheque and pat themselves on the back, but to spare a thought for shareholders who prop this company up and are the ONLY ones who feel the pain when the SP slides based on uncertainty and no confidence? Nope I don't think they give a crap.
This was a pivotal $210 million dollar merger, but to ensure it went smoothly and started off on the right foot (even with just plain clear communication) they have done sweet FA.
I'll take arguements against, but i'll only be directing you to look at the combined market cap before merger announcement and now.
That tells you something stinks, maybe we need to start discussing what that is.
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