AVL price focus, page-48

Sunday maths comp?

We’re  currently priced like a company that’s about to go broke -  Market Cap $117m:



Bear in mind there was actually $24.6m in the kitty on December 31 according to the last quarterly [ref]with the previous quarter’s spend being $5,123,000 so there’s maybe around $20m still left in the pot.

Spoiler : RCF Contribution

AND RCF in less than a year put in
22/03/2023  :$8,059,039.34  (for 233,431,656 shares ie 5.35%) at a price of about 3.5c each [DOYOUR OWN MATHS ref]

21/04/2023 :  Up yo 6.37% ( ie $1,623,701.35 spend on 44,146,510 shares [ ref]) so ~3.7c each ?

05/05/2023 : 48,990,151  shares for $1,828,147.51 [ref] … about 3.7c each?

- I think that works out at a total spend of $10,151,100.40 for 286,838,317 shares (3.54c each??) ​

Then on o2/10/2023 RCF shares jumped to  920,048,826 .. 18.52% [ref] being  the addition of four more buys of
$15m for 576,923,077 at 3.6c each (02/10/23)
Plus three extra buys last May comprising 16,577,432 shares worth $675,709.42  


I add up it’s dedicated AVL spend to date as being $25,826,809.80

Plus the $16,250,000 spent at TMT since October 2021;

05/10/2021[ref] at 37.5c a share for 24,540,984 shares it announced it had become became a 13.16% cornerstone investor ​

- on 26/11/2021 [ref] another 11,459,016 placement shares at 37.5c a share took it to 17.69% with a 2021 spend of $13.5m which kept that company going until 2023.​

in 2023 RCF noted on 03/06/23 [ref]there had been an on market buy of 9,821,428 shares for $2,749,999. (28c a share) . NB that was the amount to which it committed in this placement notice .​

So at the time of the merger it had spent $16,250,000 over at TMT for 45,821,428 shares (18.19%)
- converted on 05/02/2024 into 14 AVL shares for each one into what I estimate as 641,499,992 new AVL shares (at a ‘translated’ cost of 3.94c each?)

…By my links and maths (above in the spoiler)  the RCF financial contribution to this company after merge has been $42,076,809.90 on about 1,561,548,818  shares at an average of 2.7c each.

Anyway you can see the RCF contribution is fairly significant - its spend plus - say $19m - left in cash equates to
$61m.….
Plus add in the rest of the $49m grant that’s still pending  ($39m?) and I reckon just on those three factors* AVL is cheaper than chips right now.

And I’d very much welcome someone checking those numbers and assumptions please.

cheers

*- I assume RCF wants its’ money back  plus gains that equal more than interest,