AVR anteris technologies global corp.

6.09%

$6.27

hi syn, some good discussion and points to reflect on. What’s...

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iceman.11

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25/05/22

11:05

Post #: 61608023
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Originally posted by synaphai: ↑

I'm as bullish on AVR/AMEUF as anyone, it's just about equal my largest position, but I think we're way too early to think about anything close to a $15 billion buyout. Remember, we are still relatively early clinical-stage. We need a lot more data. I've invested in biotech long enough to not definitively count my clinical trial results before they hatch.

I've updated my calculations for a current reasonable buyout price and with an expected global TAVR market size of $6 billion (all dollar amounts USD) in 2025 and an expected CAGR of 18%, if DurAVR takes 5% market share in 2025, then a 10% share in 2026, 20% in 2027 and 30% for the next 4 years...that's a total projected revenue of $18 billion over 7 years. With a discount of 75% because the DurAVR is still clinical stage, that gives a total revenue projection of $13.5 billion for 7 years for a company buying out Anteris. What should be the asking price for the chance at that kind of revenue? $2.5 billion ($3.5 AUD)? $3.5 billion ($4.9 AUD)? Something around there may be a starting price in negotiations at some point. A price of $2.5 billion USD would be a share price of around $150 USD or $211 AUD with the current amount of fully diluted shares.

Obviously we are a ways from that and it seems unrealistic for a company to float a serious buyout offer at 12.4x the current share price. That would be the mother of all arbitrage opportunities. lol. Maybe there will be a bidding war behind the scenes, who knows, that drives the price up but IMO we still have a lot to prove before we can expect buyout offers in the multibillions. I'm confident we'll get to that valuation one way or another eventually, but more data, with a lack of serious adverse events, is very likely what matters above all else.

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hi syn, some good discussion and points to reflect on. What’s your figure for the amount of funding required going forward?

AVR Price at posting: $16.50 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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Last $6.27		Change 0.360(6.09%)		Mkt cap ! $97.17M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$5.93	$6.30	$5.91	$107.9K	17.39K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	3500	$6.12

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Price($)	Vol.	No.
$6.27	200	1

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	3500	6.120
1	2000	6.100
1	1000	6.000
1	1250	5.950
1	857	5.830

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.270	200	1
6.300	463	1
6.400	130	1
6.500	255	1
6.550	1092	1

Last trade - 15.42pm 27/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

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hi syn, some good discussion and points to reflect on. What’s...

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hi syn, some good discussion and points to reflect on. What’s...

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