avx shorts start covering, page-15

Thank you for your contribution, fG - nothing like a cold shower to challenge ones aspirations and assumptions.

I would however offer my own spin:

Avexa has demonstrated a suitable ability to conduct Phase-III trials. I cannot guess just how demanding a task this is, but I suspect it's a monster of a headache getting it right, and getting it right doesn't mean proving that it's good, great or fantastic, it means proving its clinical worth, and if that clinical worth justifies commercialisation, then putting a convincing case to the regulators.

And not just any regulator, but the one with the keys to the cookie jar - the good old F D of A in the good old U S of A.

Take for an example Viralytics (asx:VHL). They have what may be an excellent product in a genetic drug in the HIV space, and I'm very interested in their future, but they're doing their tests in South Africa to meet the requirements the local regulators there, and I don't see in VHL a clear path at the moment to FDA approval. I'm sure they'll get it in the long run if the product works well enough, but they're several steps behind where Avexa is now.

As to why Shire off loaded the ATC molecule to Avexa is a good question - I know nothing of Shire's business, but I would assume they're test-tubers who would prefer someone else does the tacky leg-work of popping pills down throats and counting nasties amongst blood cells. Shire of course remains Avexa's largest shareholder. Seems like a prety sound seal from their view, if they thought ATC was in with a chance of being a winner.

People bag Avexa's management for a number of reasons, and the Progen scenario is one that often comes up, but I thought then and continue to think that it was a very sound arrangement at the time - the world was coming to an end, and the one alternative getting the $ to keep Avexa afloat was a cap-raising, ie, ask a rabble of frantic shareholders to cough up big.

Now wonder they tried to avoid that! However, Progen fell through and Avexa was forced into the last ditch. And it paid off.

That $, at that time in the context of Avexa's Phase-II and Phase-III trial forward planning, was always going to be necessary - what Avexa couldn't have known 2 years prior was that the request would come amidst signs of impending doom for civilisation as we know it.

The most recent criticism of the board, is the understated tenor of the Phase-III headline results. While that frustrates most shareholders, and threw a spanner in my evil plans as a shameless day-trader, I'm content enough to have a cautious and scientific spin on the results rather than boosterism to assuage the nerves of shareholders. I suspect the good old F D of A would prefer that too.

Game is on. It's all been up to the molecule until now, and the molecule's done its bit. Now it's up the the business savvy and poker-playing of the board, and it's now we'll find out what they're made of.

My point is, we haven't seen that yet. It been neither proven nor disproven, but on my analysis, there's more +ve that -ve in the story so far.

Regards,

P.

(ps - the folks in day-trader land didn't like my lurid signature, so I deleted it, sob, boo-hoo).