As a devoted LTR holder, you recently made the following observations about AVZ:
'What AVZ shareholders have to deal with:
1. LIT Global X topped out, bearish Engulfing CS within possible TED.
2. After Spinning Top CS, DOW down 112 points closing outside possible TED.
3. Tesla down another 12% or US$ 139 after possible TED.
4. DOW futures currently down.'
Can I suggest that we re-script the above as follows;
What AVZ shareholders have to deal with:
1. A bullish looking daily chart as evidenced by the below Japanese average candlestick and line (closing) charts.
2. A very bullish weekly chart - will it follow the yellow brick road to $1 by end of 2021?
3. An extremely bullish monthly chart - old resistance smashed meaning practically all holders are in profit.
So it looks as though the SP will end 2021 at or near an all-time high. However, this just the entree for AVZ holders IMO, as SD Moores at Benchmark Minerals suggests a Lithium structural shortage to hit in 2022, and according to BMM for the remainder of this decade (at least).
4. Insanely bullish sector charts and for good reason. After all, this is just the beginning of replacing ~2 billion ICEs currently on the road with Lithium powered EVs. Years of insatiable Lithium & Tin demand ahead IMO.
5. Steadily rising daily VWAP for AVZ over the past couple of weeks (this data is crucial when trying to make sense of the volatility IMO). Last three days shown below.
6. Tesla SP stabilising following Musk's intention to sell 10% of his holdings (his brother sold some shares as well). Rob Maurer (Tesla analyst from Tesla Daily) reported the bigger Tesla news however, with production for Q4 expected to be around 300k units (1.2m annualised and that's without Giga Berlin and Giga Texas, with both soon to come online). Tesla's FA has never looked better and is forcing legacy auto to increase their EV budgets, development and output before they become irrelevant. Watch analysts play Leap Frog as they upgrade their demand and price forecasts for Tesla and indeed the whole EV/Lithium sector, for years to come.
7. AVZ ST catalysts - HEPP agreement, Collaboration agreement, Favourable Technical Opinion followed by ML, BFS (with much improved metrics inc. higher Lithium & Tin pricing vs April 2020 DFS) all due any tick of the clock. FID, SEZ and construction to follow in 2021?
8. Other possible catalysts.Cantor Fitzerald's 'fireside chat' with Nigel Ferguson tomorrow (local Australian time). Will their clients be buying up after what they are about to hear and knowing what's to come in the short term? Plus the DRC Business Africa Forum in 2 weeks with AVZ presenting and the likes of Tesla, BMW, LG and partner CATL in attendance. Bloomberg report to be presented (with very bullish implications for the DRC as per the below) will likely excite the big EV/battery players, not to mention the DFIs (low rate debt funding).
9. LTR's new DFS based on Roskill spot pricing over LOM with ZERO offtake agreements and NO Tier 1 Technical Partner = BOD pumping for a quick sale IMO.
AVZ, on the other hand, will likely use the more conservative long-term contract pricing (currently an impressive US$930/t over by all reports - see below) due to having secured quality offtake partners already. AVZ is also closer to production, profit and eventual dividends for shareholders IMO.
@FlashPoint, you failed miserably to point out any of the above points in your posts / AVZ analysis IMO. Their is no clear evidence of an ABC correction (that you highlighted in a recent post) on the above charts i.e. zero red HA candlesticks and in fact today's closing price is an all-time high.
Any AVZ TA that excludes the above FA & TA points (particularly at this crucial phase of the company's development with multiple announcements due any tick of the clock) is simply amateur hour charting IMO. And that goes for other non-holding charting 'experts' that suddenly appear out of nowhere or only frequent this thread when it suits their agendas.
To these individuals, I would say how about taking some time to understand the FA first, and then form your TA analysis with that in mind. If your intent is to be genuine, then it would do your credibility wonders IMO. Hoots made this fundamental error a while back with AVZ and could have made some serious coin, but at least he recently admitted that he got the FA wrong.
The trend is your friend and the ST, MT & LT trend is up, as evidenced in the above charts. Until that changes, corrections are generally short-lived and should be considered as buying opportunities IMO.
GLTA (more Friday FOMO with Cantor Fitz. fireside chat? And/or perhaps news dropping prior to next week's AGM?)
with ZERO offtake agreements and NO Tier 1 Technical Partner = BOD pumping for a quick sale IMO.
