I don't have a problem with your bearish view, but I do have a problem with this phrase:
I suspect the small rally to 31 c was a dead cat bounce, that represented B up, now we go into C down probably to 20c or so ... the bear rally - B from 26 to 31c was always potentially a fast rally - so IMO ... unless news overtakes this ... we're going C down now I expect.
I call BS. With such a "TA" prediction you are always right. Because when news overtakes his you'll say: "But I told you that news could overtake this."
So next time please show us a chart and don't put the "unless news overtakes this"- phrase into your TA prediction.
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