8 mill of potential projects. $5 mill more than in january (3 mill).. At a linear rate, by December we will have $30 mills worth, but wait, the value of project reviews has grown exponentially; roughly 260% every 2 months !!!
Hypothetically by applying basic mathematics; in twelve months they may have reviewed $926 mill of projects if the number of potential projects continues at this rate.
To become a ten bagger ( ie market cap of 150 mill with a PE of 2.. lets be conservative) they only need to win a mere 8% of those $926 mill worth of projects by Dec 08.
Now lets be realistic and assume that due to man power restrictions they can only review a fraction of those potential tenders.. $ 60,000,000's worth ( 6% of potential quotes) and of those they win 33%. ie $20 mill.
Lets be ultra conservative; With a PE of 2 at $20 mill profit this will be sitting at MC of 40 mill.. . SP 36cents..
The ANN suggested people have little or no alternative to their water ingress problems. So by Dec, with a hypothetical $60,000,000 worth of reviewed projects and assuming they win 80%, and a potential PE of 2 this will hit 62 cents without a problem.
All calculations and figures are very hypothetical.. but I think it is good to throw a few figures around. It does indicate ALOT of upside.
Correct me if I am wrong but worst case scenario is that we will be cash flow positive by June. So there doesn't appear to be any downside.
Please feel free to debate me, I am just an aussie battler trying to make a few $ ;) so share your thoughts.
HTI Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
