The deliverable was late because of Congolese establishment organising ministry responsibilities till late June, including and especially noted in a media report was the portfolio ministry; the main holder of equity in the parastatal Cominiere; AVZ Dathcom JV partner.
Deliverables are:
10-15?% JV % project interest towards end of July, Early August. This is assuming the Cominiere/ Kinshasa relevant ministries’ trigger final Dathomir decision at their EGM late July-early August. https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/39200059/single
Any Intermediate MET test results ; Everyone agrees what’s near to surface in the ground (check last JORC resource statement), any significant early result could justify and or catalyse offtake in this qtr on a conditional basis. ‘Early bird catches the worm’. May 20 asx announcement https://static1.squarespace.com/sta...547574/20190517 Operations Update (FINAL).pdf Any Intermediate METS results will be a teaser and can’t be far off. These results could aid in defining phase 2 of geotechnicals but more so, possibly more confidence around the start up strategy : what process flow would be implemented for the base case 2mtpa production.
Project financing & ‘conditional’ Offtake : When will or would this happen? In the announcement AVZ to increase equity stake in the Manono project we are given indications of timing. For example, that the project partner %s are, I quote, are “critical” for project funding. Which by ‘critical’ indicates a dependancy and an advanced conception of how a deal would be structured. Secondly, another indication of timeframe *could be*, tacitly, inferrably possible, as early as within two weeks of assigning to AVZ Dathomir’s 5% of 10% project %; “first tranche payment of US$500,000 is to be paid within 14 days of execution”https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/39200059/single ................. in my view Dathomir 5% acquired means Cominiere x% acquired contingent, as both would be (as announced in June ) coupled critical in a project finance related restructure. When I say “related” I leave open the possibility that finance happens with AVZ project 60% stake and for 15% tacked on outside the deal………. It could work either way. There in lies room for hypotheticals on any dilution or not. So essentially, in my view AVZ could expect once %’s are augmented and AVZ Power more defined, project financing could be as early as first half of August. A lot of cohesion to realising project finance seems to hinge on the Government signing off on Cominiere %’s
Any update on AVZ Power activity…………… This venture’s progress is likely critical to project financing and vice versa. As far as the plain online eye can see http://e-guce.guichetunique.cd/e-guce/ …………… Dave Gagnon’s troll-shopping looks to be stalled, 2 months and still no registration. Do we have formidable allies/ staff on board? The scalability of the hydroelectric station I await to hear more on, based on the historic 32-38MW rating and will be the other variable to offset transport costs further and ensuring our position on the low cost quartile among industry peers. USD$0.03-5c kw/h is a dream attainable and comparable with North American kwh rates while x3 less than Australian rates. Further more there is scope to feed back into the Manono and wider community thus improving living standards and general industry potential. (There was a brewery there in the Tin days)
EU funding details relevant to AVZ infrastructure needs. Another confidence indicator for a project financier which may segue into upgrades via Moba route and or down south with rail. It makes sense to me to have a dedicated haul route in certain segments rather than share a public road. @Obe wan stated lime stabilisation as a method used in Australia as with Adani’s interests in QLD.
Any more details on transport (includes 5.)
In conclusion………… IMO it can be seen that the keystone event for AVZ, project finance, relies on supports outlined above and vice versa supporting events rely on project finance, from a JV point of view of limiting risk in AVZ acquiring more % I believe……………. Correct if incorrect.
Any Intermediate METS results will be a teaser and shouldn't be far off
All IMO & DYOR
AVZ Price at posting:
4.6¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)