I've jumped to the top of my post to apologise for the length of the following rant. I feel as though I'm too far in now to take it back.
In keeping my record of having read every comment and followed every link posted on AVZ for the past 14+ months; I've finally caught up on the past week. Speaking as someone currently sitting on 1500% profit and anxiously awaiting the next round of CGT concessions to kick in next month, I find the recent level of ramping very disturbing.
There's likely too much noise now for many new investors to have trawled through the previous discussions on sovereign risk, power requirements, weather, transportation routes/costs, etc. - it's hard enough just keeping up with the all the new posts - but I would encourage people to search by "thread list" and explore the most commented/viewed threads that were started prior to July; ignore the predictions of where the SP is heading, and arrive at your own, justified conclusions.
Before the first assays were returned, this forum was probably the highest quality I have experienced on HotCopper. Contributions from the likes of
@mineralised @sinkorswim @blastfurnace @greenmetals @thunder54 @Haplo @happyonlithium @Obe wan @binwood - to name a few - have been invaluable. There are many more quality posters missing from that short list, from both sides of the debate, but they should know who they are.
Please don't get me wrong, I firmly believe that every current holder of AVZ will make a decent profit (perhaps even another "bag"), but there is a limit to how much AVZ/Manono can be sold for, and some people may need to rein in their expectations. The pre-production capex for the eventual owner(s) of the mine will be almost as staggering as the resource itself, and has to be considered against the value of the deposit - as well as the insightful and informed variables that
@Scarpa (in particular) and others have raised - when determining the potential sale price.
The tin credits may well cover all of the operating costs, but there is a lot of infrastructure to fund (and I don't mean roads and rail) before the money starts flowing. The resource is far too big and remote to exported in bulk form. It will likely need an onsite chemical plant to unlock the project's full potential, which in turn will require its own power plant. And if it's going to be difficult getting the resource out; it's going to be difficult getting the construction materials in. The "wet season" also lasts for 9 months - although this will be hopefully be less of an issue soon with Dathomir upgrading the roads.
I didn't intend for this post to get so long, or come across as negative as it probably has, but I still have left to say that this is not PLS, and should not be measured against it. AVZ will not take their mine to production, if Klaus' history is anything to go by - and this is not a bad thing. It's exactly the reason I believe most of the early investors bought in the first place. In and out by early-mid 2018, hopefully.
Now to hopefully contribute something. My understanding of the timeline is that MO17DD01 was the first hole drilled in late March; terminating at mineralisation at about 150m when they ran out of drill cores. This hole would be re-enetered at a later date, but it was reported that cores showed >20% spodumene (>1.6% Li2O) and were being sent to the lab for analysis.
By mid-May, MO17DD01 and MO17DD02 had both been completed and MO17DD03 and MO17DD04 were in progress. Results were supposedly being released in the order they were received (granted, this came from an unofficial source), but I can't recall reading anything more about this seemingly very promising hole - half of which was sent for assays 5 months ago, and the other half 3 months ago. I find this very intriguing.
