Stakx, You have made 7 posts that are just ramps in a bit over 12 hours, yet you have the gall to say this...
"I have noted you persistent down ramping Oz and it is getting tiring."
Including this post, I have made 4 posts on AVZ in the last 3.5 days. In my posts I try to stick to as many facts as possible, and in this thread you have just gone over old ground that has been discussed ad nauseum.
Yes Manono is huge, can you point to anyone that disputes this??
Can you point to any poster that does not know this??
There are clearly other issues at play, which is why the price has fallen over 30% since I bought in, in April (maybe that's the reason
). I have lost money and I'm still losing money on this investment, so I like to look at every aspect and have open discussion of why.
Since mid April, Pilbara has risen 10%, KDR has risen a bit over 20%, AJM is flat, TAW up by ~5%, yet AVZ has fallen around 35%.
Talking about size, that has been known since last year, is just ramping, not discussing what is happening and why! It is obviously not the resource, so why keep harping on about how big it is???
In the last 2 weeks of May, 3 large shareholders that were in the top 20, and held a combined total of over 30m shares, no longer appear in the top 20. That is fact and possibly a reason why the SP has fallen over the last few weeks.
The company stated on 30th of April a couple of important things.
1. Assays for holes 6-12 expected in the next 2 weeks......... not only was this timeline not met, it was never possible as samples for holes 6-12 are still not in the lab in Perth. It will take over 2 weeks from when the lab gets the samples for them to email the company the results. I know this from my experience of delivering samples for assaying for Li, sn, Ta etc etc.
2. Chinese potential investors were completing DD by early May............shareholders expected to hear something about this in early May, but nothing.
Other issues, like infrastructure have been raised (yes I know many times before), however the load limit of bridges being 30 tonnes was not known but now is, and people have raised this in terms of a large mine using this type of road (experienced in logistics), yet they get dismissed, when the subject is very relevant.
Talk of a different route via rail or road to rail, never discusses how much this will cost, or who will pay. The same goes for a hydroxide plant on site to reduce transport costs. Such a Hydroxide plant would cost in the order of $US 300m for a 28,000t/a module............
http://imagesignal.commsec.com.au/d...nZXNpZ25hbC9lcnJvcnBhZ2VzL3BkZmRlbGF5ZWQuanNw
...... and that would only account for about 220,000 tonnes of spodumene (6%). If people are thinking in terms of a 5-10Mt/a processing plant, then 4-8 hydroxide modules would be needed costing billions, then there is the amount of energy needed to run such a plant as well,where does it come from?? In WA it is from cheap NW-shelf gas for Kwinana (Tianqi) and Wodgina (MIN).
AVZ is a junior mining explorer, that does not have the capital to do the many wonderful possibilities mentioned by many posters, but the same people that keep suggesting them do not mention where the money will come from to do these EXTRA developments on top of a processing plant that will involve several processes (ie Tin and Tantalum circuits) on top of of spodumene production. As AVZ only owns 60% of the deposit, a 50/50 JV with someone, only gives them 30% of the total, not 50% like SQM's deal with KDR which only netted $US110m for KDR, despite a resource worth billions.
One last aspect about the size, IMHO above 300-500Mt is irrelevant and a waste of money if drilled to find, as 300Mt in the measured and indicated category is enough for a 20Mt/a plant for 15 years, and the company has already talked of a 2Mt/a plant as the starting size.
IMHO nearly all the discussion has been aimed in the wrong direction recently. The share price fall comes back to the companies own performance over the last 6 months.
Not only have timelines been badly missed, but the company is not getting out and selling the vision for the future.
PLS has had 5 presentations in the last 6 months, with KB appearing at various venues, TAW have had 3 presentations, in that time period, AVZ have had ZERO presentations in the last 6 months, so lack of direction when the share price is falling is a huge issue to me (and I'll bet others during tax loss selling time).
